Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 11.180312 13.685008 16.482172 19.817592 23.665781 27.945373 33.042916
2026-02-08 7.372046 10.479916 14.351315 19.441680 25.865053 33.604760 43.529903
2026-02-15 5.190801 8.371938 12.705215 18.854295 27.150454 37.739176 52.031684
2026-02-22 4.114140 7.384551 12.180664 19.411467 29.681406 43.364824 62.536749
2026-03-01 3.139133 6.274122 11.216884 19.109443 30.863068 47.141017 70.712132
2026-03-08 2.489387 5.506579 10.591606 19.138470 32.401747 51.385673 79.644026
2026-03-15 1.857593 4.595265 9.552288 18.341788 32.565767 53.605571 85.785218
2026-03-22 1.566064 4.247083 9.389130 18.895282 34.779427 58.862053 96.442712
2026-03-29 1.296389 3.867369 9.094793 19.166254 36.526288 63.475741 106.336977
2026-04-05 1.087098 3.560015 8.876812 19.523298 38.405272 68.350775 116.794757
2026-04-12 0.917103 3.294709 8.691392 19.900836 40.317474 73.341400 127.602666
2026-04-19 0.720602 2.893477 8.149121 19.532886 40.897355 76.219544 135.258891
2026-04-26 0.587464 2.635045 7.902031 19.771115 42.674160 81.307588 146.892416
2026-05-03 0.444616 2.284376 7.376373 19.390044 43.317081 84.597942 155.898958
2026-05-10 0.325523 1.945551 6.796550 18.803499 43.504126 87.100549 163.713146
2026-05-17 0.273030 1.826811 6.751550 19.359458 45.884362 93.435249 177.982158
2026-05-24 0.204768 1.596794 6.350423 19.058073 46.559315 96.827352 187.511514
2026-05-31 0.159454 1.437505 6.109078 19.087039 47.876373 101.390289 199.139366
2026-06-07 0.108738 1.198796 5.559746 18.292059 47.437022 102.765793 205.407498
2026-06-14 0.090611 1.135786 5.554615 18.844368 49.831569 109.382963 220.850481
2026-06-21 0.071943 1.048808 5.445999 19.114763 51.638679 114.984587 234.710582
2026-06-28 0.057720 0.977665 5.374303 19.471049 53.648988 121.038621 249.540893
2026-07-05 0.046287 0.914132 5.313633 19.847789 55.723598 127.288712 264.897738